Bitcoin has climbed up from every major resistance level in the past month. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $48,412 with a 3.8% profit.
BTC on a rally in the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview
After weeks in the green, the general sentiment in the crypto market has flipped decisively bullish as sellers seem exhausted and unable to continue their assault.
Director of Global Macroeconomics for investment firm Fidelity Jurrier Timmer believes Bitcoin could retake previous highs and go back to price discovery. In a thread published via Twitter, Timmer compared BTC’s price at different historical moments.
As seen below, Bitcoin’s current price action is “similar” to the distribution phase experience during February and April. At that moment, BTC’s price seemed stuck but finally moved to the upside. Timmer said:
With the latest rally, bitcoin’s market cap is closing in on the old highs. If we add in the rest of the crypto space, we have reclaimed a market cap of $2 trillion. This is no longer a sideshow, folks.
Source: Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity
Many experts believe the macro-economic environment has favored Bitcoin, gold, and risk assets capable of generating yield for investors. In that sense, Timmer compared BTC’s performance with gold in 1970.
As seen below, the cryptocurrency and the precious metal behaved similarly. Although the expert clarified that this prediction is “highly subjective”, it could be an indication of future appreciation as BTC takes over gold’s market share. Timmer added:
In fact, bitcoin’s fundamentals (its network) are steadily improving. At the peak, there were 34.3 million addresses (with at least $1). That number fell to 31.8 million at the low and has now climbed back up to 33.5 million
Source: Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity
Bitcoin Fundamentals Strengthen, On Route To $100K?
Timmer introduced a demand model, based on an S-Curve pattern, used to determine a technology’s adoption level, and a supply model, similar to Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow.
During the third market capitulation event in mid-July, this model intersected and created a “good base from which to consolidate”. The next these models will intersect, Bitcoin will stand at around $100,000, as the chart shows.
Bitcoin’s hash rate is climbing back from the abyss (following the mining ban in China), although it remains well below the peak. Higher prices will likely fix that as mining follows demand.
Another bullish point for BTC’s price in the long term, the expert argued, is the miner’s migration from China. The main driver of recent selling pressure, this event has made the cryptocurrency’s energy consumption much cleaner and could incentive new inventors to jump into the crypto market.
The capitulation events that pushed Bitcoin from an all-time high at $64,000, to its yearly lows at around $29,000, will have positive implications. The expert claimed that short-term investors have lost market share to long-term investors or hodlers.
The latter constituted around 12% of the market, data provided by Timmer claims. The expert said:
I’m impressed how resilient bitcoin and the crypto space in general have been during this 55% correction. The speculators (tourists) got crushed as they usually do during drawdowns, and now make up only 17% of the market. That level is consistent with past bottoms.